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Phenology

Don’t Let the Snow Fool You!

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The recent major snow storm in the Northeast inevitably confirmed climate change doubters’ convictions. However, dramatic swings in temperature are also part of the changing climate, and the overall trend is unquestionably one of shorter winters.

The U.S. Geological Survey says spring is showing up two to three weeks earlier than normal in the southeast United States this year, from Texas to Washington, and is making its way gradually north. This scientifically-proven phenology finding is based on flowering and leafing out times. In the Arctic, some grasses are flowering a month early, depriving hibernating animals of a crucial early-spring food source. Snowshoe hares and ermine are failing to molt their white winter coats before the world turns green, leading to less successful protection (and for the ermine, predation) for these animals. The climate scientists have it right, regardless of the white world outside our windows — New York City’s forecast is for the mid-60’s on Wednesday. Who knows what flowers we’ll find when the snow soon melts – perhaps the unfurling flower buds of Round-leaved Hepatic (pictured).

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Early Arrival Dates & Climate Change

3-4-16 A. robin IMG_8347As yesterday’s post indicated, the progression in which signs of spring appear remains much the same, but the timing of this progression is changing. Ornithologists have determined that modern climate change has resulted in an advancement of spring phenology throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

Many birds are arriving on their breeding grounds earlier in response to these changing conditions. Past research has focused on correlating climatic changes on breeding grounds with early arrival. However, it appears that climate variability on the wintering grounds of temperate species also plays a part in these short-distance migrants’ arrival on their breeding grounds.

Many climatic factors are involved in this phenomenon. The annual variation in temperature on the wintering grounds of American robins was found to be strongly related to their first-arrival date. Red-winged blackbirds’ first arrival dates were most influenced by precipitation during winter and spring months.

These and other changes in migratory patterns can have life or death consequences — birds arriving early on their breeding grounds face the possibility of adverse conditions and limited resources.

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